Saturday, June 16, 2018

Once Bitten

I’ve been avoiding the whole cryptocurrency issue for a while now, partly because I think there’s already enough chatter about it flying around, and partly because I’ll admit I don’t completely understand the stuff. The basic idea is simple enough – you buy something in the hope that its perceived value will rise and you will be able to resell the thing for more than what you paid for it. It’s the principle behind the (mostly apocryphal) story of the Dutch Tulip Bulb crisis, or the Beany Baby fiasco in our own time. As long as the price of whatever it is keeps rising it will remain possible for each dealer in turn to resell the things at progressively higher prices, regardless of what actual value (if any) the thing might have. The problem is, these conditions won’t continue forever…

If cryptocurrencies have any intrinsic value, no one has been able to explain to me what it might be so far, not that it really matters in cases like these. Certainly, the Beany Babies were never worth more than a few cents worth of fabric and filling, plus the labor to design them, name them, make them, ship them, inventory them, and sell them. Every time one of these artificial markets finally pops – generally because somebody finally asks “Why are we paying $10,000 for a stuffed animal worth $9.99 retail?” – the people who end up losing the most were the last ones to buy whatever commodities were involved. It is understandable that anyone with items still in their possession would want to keep the market going, at least until they could unload whatever they had left; where the situation becomes completely revolting is when someone is manipulating the market to drive the spot price higher…

Unfortunately, it seems as though that is exactly what happened during 2017’s Bitcoin boom. According to a CNBC story posted yesterday, Dr. John Griffin at the University of Texas investigated the rise of Bitcoin and discovered that some party or parties (currently unidentified) were using other cryptocurrencies to stabilize the Bitcoin market during the boom, in much the same way that fraudsters have artificially inflated stock prices by placing artificial buy orders – the classic “pump and dump” scheme. The difference in this case is that since cryptocurrencies are not connected to any real-world property, there’s no way to prove that they are over-valued the way there would be with a stock issue – and since they aren’t regulated by anybody, there is no authority you could complain to if somebody was manipulating the market…

The CNBC article goes on to say that the price of Bitcoin has been plummeting over the last few months, losing around three-quarters of the value it had at the peak – which means that someone who bought a Bitcoin at $20,000 has now lost close to $14,000 on the deal, assuming they can sell it now. Of course, the more people dump these things onto the market the more the price will drop, and the cycle will continue. We’ve all seen cases of stocks dropping from hundreds of dollars per share to a few cents per share, and people who held onto them for just a few hours too long and lost everything; this is the same idea, except that in this case there is no SEC you can complain to. Or, more accurately, there is – but they can’t do anything about it…

The lack of regulation and oversight was one of the original selling points behind cryptocurrencies – the government can’t tell you what to do with them, the Federal Reserve can’t interfere with their interest rates, and there were no issues with national economies imploding or currency conversion rates. But even if cryptocurrencies themselves really are foolproof and incorruptible (which still remains to be seen), the market for them would of necessity respond to the laws of supply and demand, just like any other free market – and that means it is susceptible to manipulation, just like any other commodity, equity, debt or currency…

I’m not saying that any of the people you may know who made money on Bitcoin during its rise and fall are crooks, even if they made very large amounts of money, and even if they aren’t able to explain to you how the whole thing works or how they did it. I’m just pointing out that, unless evidence to the contrary surfaces, it would appear that this latest form of get-rich-quick scheme has turned out the way most of them do…

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