Saturday, June 23, 2018

Are You Kidding Me?

Back in 2015 I brought you the story of what came out after the Ashley Madison data breach – a relatively small event, compared with the outrages at Target or Equifax, to take only two examples. What was really amazing about the Ashley Madison story wasn’t the data breach itself, but rather the revelation that nearly all of the active accounts on the site were owned by men, and many of the allegedly “female” members were members of the Ashley Madison staff, ‘bots being used to simulate active accounts, scammers pretending to be women, or (in a few cases) all of the above. At the time, I remarked that this was the perfect crime, in the sense that the men who had been effectively defrauded by the site would be extremely unlikely to complain to the authorities, since that would involve admitting to looking for an extramarital affair (if not actually having one)…

I doubted this would be the end of the company, or the story, however. The “Post-Truth” era was, mercifully, still years in the future, but it was already hard to imagine that anyone who was really desperate enough for illicit sex to risk offering their credit card information to an online company for that purpose would be deterred by the fact that somewhere between 70% and 95% of the “women” on the site didn’t really exist. While the data breach might scare off some of the saner or less desperate prospects, thus interfering with future sales, the company’s losses in the affair were only a $1.6 million fine and possibly the loss of a handful of men whose partners genuinely didn’t realize they were looking for something on the side. That would, however, still level tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of sleazy men who are bad at math thinking that despite the 35-to-one odds of actually finding a real women on Ashley Madison, they might be the one to get lucky…

This week brought a new wrinkle in the case, however. The USA Today site published a story about a report issued by Ashley Madison, listing the cities in which the largest number of new accounts have been started over the last year. The first thing that caught my eye was the lack of raw data; there are twenty cities listed in the linked article, but no indication of what size the client base in each of them might be. Does this mean that Dallas has 10,000 more cheaters than Chicago, or only 10? Or are there really only a dozen or so active accounts in each one, and is the company trying to convince people in those cities that someone will/might actually be available to sleep with them if they sign up? But then it gets worse…

The article goes on to say that Ashley Madison now has over 54 million accounts, up from the 36 million or so they had three years ago, and that the accounting firm of Ernst & Young now reviews their accounts list to verify that all of the accounts are for real. This isn’t impossible, of course; E&Y does perform that kind of audit, and some of their customers do have account lists of that size or even larger. The problem here is, even if they can verify that the accounts are active, how can they verify the existence of 54 million distinct customers – or, indeed, any particular number of customers – without completely violating the privacy of all of those people? And, one assumes, whatever confidentiality agreement Ashley Madison has with its customers…

More to the point, perhaps, how does any auditor, no matter how discrete, manage to determine how many people are actually using their Ashley Madison accounts, even if those people really do exist and are actually paying for their accounts? Assuming, of course, that anyone out there is going to believe a word the company says after the revelations of 2015. It would be nice to believe that there aren’t 54 million people out there who are capable of affording the cost of their Ashley Madison accounts and computer-literate enough to sign up for one who are also gullible enough to believe that this time the company is telling the whole truth – in effect, that the company is once again lying through its teeth…

But then I look at some of the other things that people in this country have been claiming to believe this week, and I have to wonder…

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