Still Not Sure

I have written in this space before about those occasions when it seems impossible to tell whether a given company is actually taking the actions you’ve just read about, or if they are only doing something outrageous in the hopes of attracting media attention. A lot of new product promotions work that way, partly because it is difficult to create a truly ingenious advertisement for even the most superlative product, but also because it is becoming increasingly difficult to cut though the massive amounts of clutter clogging up any potential medium. In addition, there are a far greater number of both media and channels within them appearing every year – reaching all American television viewers was relatively easy when there were only three or four channels being broadcast, for example, but doing so is much harder when many areas have 900 or more possible viewing choices. And that does not even consider the increasing number of people who get all of their news and entertainment online, and don’t ever watch television…

It’s probably also worth pointing out that not all demographics will consider the same things outrageous or shocking, for that matter. Business failures resulting from efforts to market a new product or service to the wrong audience are legion, and it’s impossible to say how many additional ventures have failed because whoever was making the strategic policy decided to pass on a world-beating product simply because he or she didn’t like the idea – there’s no wreckage lying around from ventures somebody didn’t try, you see. Failures of this type are referred to collectively as the “I am the world” fallacy by Scott Adams in one of his non-fiction books about management, and can occur any time a senior manager applies his or her own preferences to a business decision instead of consulting actual marketing data. It is imperative that all managers and business analysts question their assumptions, not just regularly but constantly, before taking action. This is why I held back my first impression of the new Doritos product and took another look…

If you haven’t heard about them yet, the story goes that PepsiCo Canada has just released a new product that they are calling Doritos “Roulette”flavor. Hype aside, these are bags of ordinary nacho cheese corn chips, only every seventh or eighth chip is as spicy as the company has been able to make it, turning each bite into something of an adventure. The idea appears to be that if two (or more) customers take turns pulling a single chip out at random and eating it, sooner or later one of them is going to draw (and eat) one that will be painfully spicy. None of the materials I have seen about this product to date address what the players are supposed to do with the rest of the bag at that point – or why anyone would purchase these chips if they were not intending to play the implied game…

Now, we should acknowledge that this is hardly the first product to play on the apocryphal game of “Russian Roulette” in a food product, let alone the only food product with potential inedible portions hidden in each package. A familiar example in recent years might be the “Every-flavor Beans” created as a tie-in to the Harry Potter books and movies (their fictional counterparts appear in the story), which included such unappetizing flavors as grass, dirt, earthworm and vomit and oddball flavors like toast, popcorn, black pepper and sausage with more conventional candy flavors. Fans of the series would challenge each other to select a bean at random and eat it despite the possibly revolting taste, much as Doritos is suggesting their customers do with the corn chips. Whether or not you could just spit the losing beans out again was a matter of individual preference…

My personal reaction to the Doritos Roulette flavor was to question why the company is bothering to produce them – the Doritos “Flaming Hot” flavor has never been that successful, and the “losing” chips in this product are much hotter and even less appealing. But it important to note that I have now passed out of the key demographic for corn chips (males, 18-36 years old), and I’ve been out of the food wholesale business for over a decade; the fact that this product does not appeal to me is based on behavior patterns and consumer preferences that may well be irrelevant to the target market, rather than any hard data. I’m not sure whether this product has any real potential, or if it will have a brief flare of notoriety and then vanish onto the compost heap of history. I’m just calling it to your attention because that personal gut reaction should not be used to make decisions for a multinational corporation, but reactions just like it often are – and sometimes they destroy entire companies, not just unusual product ideas…