Monday, July 28, 2014

Define Success

I can’t really take credit for this one – I was directed to the idea from the What If site, which was created by the genius behind the XKCD web comic – but as I followed up across the related sites a question popped up in my rather idiosyncratic thought process: When can you reasonably describe a crowdfunding exercise that brings in over $1.4 million as a failure? Just as important, though, is the counterpoint question: When can you reasonably describe a project that receives just 0.0000025% of the necessary funding (that’s one dollar for every 40,000,000 you actually need) as a success? Well, it depends on the how you define success – and on how big the project really is, I suppose…

If you haven’t seen any of the Solar Roadways video or text presentations you can find a good selection of them on You Tube, but the basic idea is to replace the asphalt and concrete surfaces of all of the roads (and highways and parking lots and so on) in America with solar panels. Since that’s somewhere around 29,000 square miles, we could conceivably generate three times our current total energy requirements just using current solar cell technologies, with more to come as the state of the art improves. There are a number of technical issues involved, which you can read about on the Jalopnik site here, but there are also some offsetting advantages, such as using the same roadway-mounted solar panels to house programmable LEDs, making the roads reconfigurable in real time. Unfortunately, when we look at the business side of the concept the whole thing gets murky with amazing speed…

Project estimates provided by the Extreme Tech website put the total cost of conversion for 29,000 square miles of roads at around $56 trillion USD – or about four times our current National Debt – using the cost figures provided by the Solar Roadways company’s own projections. And that doesn’t even consider the costs involved in developing the clear outer layer of the roadway – there isn’t currently any form of super-glass that can handle all of the operational requirements for such a substance. There are also issues like the proposed LED lane marker system costing more than the solar cells themselves, the cost of transmitting the generated energy to customers who can use it (which dwarfs the rest of the project), and operational concerns like cleaning the glass tiles (roadways get dirty a lot), replacing broken elements while traffic swirls around you at highway speeds, and hackers getting into the LED lane markers and configuring the roads into one giant death trap…

Now, we should probably acknowledge that there is nothing inherently wrong with the idea of widely dispersed solar collectors, assuming there is some economical and technically feasible way of connecting them to the power grid. For that matter, even if a continental-scale project isn’t possible, there’s no reason you couldn’t have single streets or individual parking lots built this way that can power their surrounding buildings. If creating a self-cleaning glass strong enough to stand up to truck traffic while still collecting sunlight isn’t feasible, then what about roof tiles made the same way? Or simple parking-space carports, which are common in the sunny parts of our country, that use the same technology to turn entire parking lots into giant solar arrays? Of course, that would require further research and development, since the current solar cells are still a bit too expensive for this sort of mass use. If only somebody were to come up with seed money for such a program – say, using crowdfunding…

It remains to be seen if the Solar Roadways people will get anywhere with their more advanced designs; as previously noted, they still need 40,000,000 times more money to complete the project. But between crowdfunding and Department of Transportation grants they now have around $2.2 million USD in research funds, which isn’t exactly small change. I don’t know if we will ever drive on continuous bands of solar collectors, but it’s possible that we might park under them, work under them, or live under them sometime soon. Even with a funding percentage of 0.0000025%, it’s hard to call that a failure…

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