Saturday, April 19, 2014

Car of Tomorrow?

I do wonder sometimes if people from other professions get as fed up with conspiracy theories, popular beliefs, and idiotic fiction and screenplays as I do. Certainly, I’ve seen lawyers and paralegals of my acquaintance get annoyed when movies and television programs misrepresent the law and portray behavior so grossly incompetent and completely unprofessional that if any real attorney did them being disbarred would be the least of their worries. I’ve also known healthcare professionals who get infuriated by the idea that all diseases could be cured in an afternoon if a sufficiently brilliant doctor had to save his love interest in time to end the movie on an up note, and public health researchers who get outraged by claims that such cures are being suppressed by various power blocks. For my money, the defeatism is even worse than the paranoia – saying that we will never have vehicles capable of driving 300-plus miles on a gallon of gas because the Oil lobby and politicians who take money from them will never allow it to happen, rather than working to bring the Volkswagen XL1 to North America…

I’m not going to link to the original far-left ranting site; you can go to the Volkswagen site and download the brochure and press package for yourself if you want to. One quick glance over the specifications will help to dispel all of the ranting, although it may also disappoint the reader (assuming I have readers). It turns out that the XL1 isn’t a magical supercar that gets its power from the mad genius of Volkswagen engineers; it’s a one-cylinder diesel-electric hybrid with an 8.4 horsepower engine and room for two people and a bag of groceries. Two relatively small people, and a very light bag of groceries, at least. The fuel economy is very impressive, although it’s closer to 250 miles on a gallon of diesel than 300, but none of this changes the fact that this vehicle is closer in size and concept to the old EV-1 electric car or the Honda Insight hybrid, and I can’t use either one of them…

The payload data isn’t included in the download from the VW site, but in the case of the Insight, its payload is so small that while it would be able to transport me (assuming I could fit in the driver’s seat, which I can’t) any theoretical companion travelling with me would have to weigh 80 pounds or less, or the car would not be able to move. And that assumes that neither of us had a small bag of groceries – or a briefcase or purse – with us. Clearly, there will be a limited market for such a vehicle in the U.S., where we like our cars to be powerful and roomy – or at least able to leave the curb when loaded. Even worse, at least from a consumer standpoint, the price given for the production model is in the $150,000 range, or about twice what a Tesla roadster (which is street legal in the U.S.) costs. In fact, it’s almost three times what the much-maligned Chevrolet Volt or the beloved Toyota Prius cost…

As to why they aren’t available for import, Volkswagen is only building 250 of these things, exclusively for sale in Europe, and has not made them available for safety testing anywhere else. Given the limited supply and high price point, it seems likely that the company is using this small fleet as a proof of concept. That many units will provide enough data to determine if the machinery is reliable, if the car is safe on the road, what happens to the vehicle (and the passengers) in the event of a crash, and so on. If the company can prove that the product is safe and reliable, they will probably be able to bring it to North America – where it won’t sell, until and unless they can bring the price down by a factor of at least four or five, and double or triple the payload. For the moment the XL1 is basically a concept car right out of an auto show, and conspiracy theories about this vehicle are completely asinine…

If Volkswagen can overcome those technical problems, however, it isn’t hard to imagine this “Super-Efficient Vehicle” (or SEV) doing to all of the current American car companies exactly what its beetle-shaped ancestor did to the industry in the last Century. If that happens I expect we will be hearing about a lot of new conspiracy theories – and a lot of unemployed auto workers. I’m not sure our domestic companies can survive another fiasco on that scale…

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