Business From On High

In the classic historical account The Right Stuff author Tom Wolfe details the phenomenal rate at which the luster came off the U.S. space program after the Apollo 11Mission landed on the Moon. Although manned space flight remained (and remains) a hot topic in other parts of the world, by the time the ill-fated Apollo 13 Mission launched the only thing that retained the interest of the American public was the malfunction that almost killed the entire flight crew – and the brilliant improvisations that brought them home safely. This continues to lead to some unflattering (and probably deserved) comments on the attention span of the American people, but the unfortunate truth is that by 1971 most people in this country were only paying attention to our space program when something extraordinary happened (e.g. Skylab, the first Space Shuttle launch, and two Shuttle disasters). This seems particularly unfortunate at the moment, considering that one of the most significant developments in the history of manned spaceflight and business is taking place somewhere over our heads this week…

If you missed it on your local news, you can pick up the most recent Forbes article about the Space-X Dragon spacecraft docking at the International Space Station with 5,000 pounds of supplies last week direct from the link. It may not seem that important at first – it is the fourth time the Dragon capsule has docked with the station, after all – but once you consider that price and convenience are the two major factors that have limited the commercial exploitation of space, this even becomes very significant. As exciting as the sound and fury of a rocket launch is, the critical aspect to any transportation system is reliability. A vehicle that can go someone once (or even six times) is at best a curiosity, at least from a business standpoint. A vehicle that can go somewhere whenever you want it to is a business asset. The Dragon has made the flight to the ISS four times already, as opposed to the single-use launch vehicles of the last century, and there is reason to believe it could do so indefinitely – or, at least, dozens of additional times. Assuming that you could find a cost-effective way of launching it…

This is what makes the other part of the linked article so interesting. The successful use of a privately-funded, privately designed launcher means that it is now possible for private companies to launch profit-seeking enterprises into Earth orbit without needing support from NASA or our national government. But even more potentially important is the successful test of the reusable Falcon 9 rocket. In theory, a reusable orbital launch vehicle would enable Space-X to lift payloads into space at a lower cost than any other entity in history – effectively opening up the commercial use of space to a huge range of companies that could never have afforded to place payload on a Space Shuttle or a Russian conventional rocket. A mass-produced reusable launcher would lower the costs still further. And if the company can produce a version of the Dragon – or one of their other designs – that is safe enough to be certified for human use, they could lift people to orbit for a fraction of what the so-called “Space Tourists” have been paying…

Now, even I have to admit that there are still a lot of “ifs” in that description, and a corresponding number of developments that we still have to await. It is possible that another company, or even another launch technology (such as the winged rockets being developed for Virgin Galactic) will become this century’s answer to Pan Am, leading the way into space and on across the cosmos. It is also possible that none of these things will pan out, commercial space travel will remain on hold for another century or two, or that humans will succeed in destroying our planet’s biosphere before we can get off of it and effectively exterminate ourselves. If I had all of the answers I’d be a multi-billionaire financial advisor and philanthropist, not a scruffy blogger nobody ever reads. But all of that said, I can’t help but think that what may be the most important technological development since the wheel may be taking place in the sky over our heads this week…

And, apart from a few space-mad history wonks like yours truly, no one is paying any attention…