During my time working with
entrepreneurs and some of their more problematic new business concepts I saw
this kind of fallacy far more often than simple logic would suggest. To many of
these people, the fact that dozens (or thousands) of other firms had attempted
to launch the same exact business, possibly even on the same exact site, and
ultimately failed, was irrelevant to their own plans and would be casually
brushed aside. Obviously, those previous failures had been attempted by people
far less clever, hard-working, likable, determined or knowledgeable than
themselves, and all of the previous attempts to launch such a venture had only
needed their input in order to achieve utter triumph. Well, their own input and
a six-figure low-interest loan secured by your tax dollars, that is…
The odd part of this concept
is that if you look around you there are examples all though our modern world.
I don’t mean the people who believe that they can get a million-dollar job
right out of college with a B.A. in English, or even the students who seem to
believe that they can write a term paper at 4:00 AM for a deadline of 8:30 AM
the same day and still receive an A for the assignment. Both of those behaviors
are traditionally, really, and can ultimately be solved without more than a
somewhat regrettable loss of time or money. The really bad examples are things
like people who ignore all of the evidence about texting while driving (or
drinking and driving, for that matter) and wind up causing inexcusable harm to
others, as well as themselves, because obviously THEY can do these things
safely. Evidence to the contrary doesn’t apply to them; only to people who are
somehow less special…
Now, I would be the last
person to tell anyone that they can’t change the rules of the game, find a
different path, or try a more oblique approach to a traditional problem – but then,
that’s kind of the point. I’m not saying that all of the previous attempts are
irrelevant, nor would I advocate dismissing anyone else’s difficulties or
failures. On the contrary, I began studying ineffective strategies and
analyzing failed companies precisely because I believe that the best way to
avoid making mistakes is to avoid the ones other people have already made. By
the same token, I’m not going to tell anyone that their new service, product or
strategy will not work just because similar ventures have failed, but I will
ask them to explain why they believe their approach is superior – and if their
reply comes out to “Because it’s ME!” I’m going to assume that they are
suffering from the aforementioned strategic fallacy…
It’s a widely-known, often
repeated statistic that nine out of every ten entrepreneurial projects fails –
and it’s also true that nearly all successful entrepreneurs have had multiple
failures for every project that succeeds. The fact is, creating a new company,
let alone a new industry, starting with only a good idea and a lot of hard work
really is extremely hard, and even the people who are exceptionally good at it
will fail nine times for every time they succeed. The last thing anybody can
afford to do is ignore all of the examples of the people who have already tried
something and failed. Because if they do, they’re probably going to end up the
same way…
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