Where’s the Strategy?

I’ve always tried to stay away from politics in this blog, partly because along with religion it’s one of the two things you should never discuss in public, but mostly because I don’t feel qualified to talk about it. I’m just as business instructor, albeit at a top business school, and none of my degrees are in Political Science, Social Psychology, Economics or Law. More to the point, perhaps, the Internet is already overflowing with opinionated idiots who believe that their personal confirmation bias makes them the only one who truly understands the situation at hand, whatever that might be. But one of the things I teach is Strategy, and one of the things that has been bugging me lately is people who really should know better displaying no understanding of a very basic strategic concept…

You may have heard the saying “Plan for an enemy’s capabilities, not his intentions” at some point, especially if you study strategy, tactics, or military history. Or, I suppose, if you eat out a lot, you might have seen these sentiments in a fortune cookie somewhere. Regardless of its origin, the phrase has relevance in a number of situations. It isn’t possible to know whether an adversary is really going to attack you; even if they say they will (or will not) you can’t be sure of their intentions short of the event. What a lot of otherwise very shrewd people seem to be losing track of these days is the fact that if your intelligence regarding an adversary’s capabilities is sufficiently accurate you may be able to determine that they will not be able to attack you regardless of what their intentions may be…

Suppose, for example, that a small group of ordinary citizens decide that the Dell organization has offended them for the last time, and they are going to acquire controlling interest in the company by purchasing 51% of its common stock, and then institute some changes. This is improbable for several reasons – notably including the fact that the company has an annual revenue reported to be on the order of $55 billion per year, which would put such a takeover beyond the resources of most average people, even in large numbers. It is, however, also impossible, because Dell is a privately-held company, and therefore has no publicly-traded stock to acquire…

By the same token, members of the Executive Branch of the Federal government can’t pass legislation, no matter how much they may want to do so. It is possible for the President to veto legislation, but since Congress can override a veto, even that isn’t certain if a measure has sufficient support. The President also cannot declare war on anybody, approve or vacate treaties with other countries, or randomly imprison people – these are not powers given to that office. It also is not possible for Congress to pass laws that violate the Constitution or any of its Amendments. They can vote to amend the Constitution again, but passing such an Amendment requires ratification by the states. And while the Supreme Court can strike down existing laws as Unconstitutional, they can’t create new laws of their own…

Now, I’m not going to suggest that there isn’t any point in planning for an opponent’s capabilities – I’m a planner by nature, as well as occasionally by trade, and I believe in planning for all the foreseeable contingencies. I also believe in employing a team of pessimists, assuming you can afford them, to consider every possible way in which things could go wrong and what would happen to your organization if they did. People will dismiss planners and strategic planning in general by claiming that you can’t, by definition, plan for the unexpected – which is perfectly correct, of course. It’s also the whole point of developing plans in the first place, however. After all, if you have already planned for a possible event, it’s no longer unexpected…

I’m not saying that this new year isn’t going to bring with it disasters, unpleasant changes and difficult decisions; most new years do, after all. I’m just suggesting that the problems we’ve already got, and the new ones that we will not be able to avoid, are going to be quite sufficient without worrying about the things that can’t happen – no matter how many times a politician claims they are going to…